> **Superseded on two numbers (2026-10-26):** this file's year-3 model (~2,520 customers × ~$110 = ~$3.3M ARR) was the first pass. The customer model page replaced it with a channel-by-channel build (2,625 customers, with the lean start) and a price that falls along a ladder from ~$350 for the first, heavy users to ~$60 entry offers, averaging ~$127 at year 3 (→ $4.0M ARR). The ~$110 long-run average stays the research anchor; the difference is timing: the first, higher-paying customers are still in the base at year 3.

# How fast comparables grew, and what the funnel numbers say

> Researched 2026-10-25 for Stapilo's investor case (international platform, USD, planned
> average ~$110 per paying customer per month; plans $79 / $179 / $399).
> Every number has a source and date (see **Sources** at the end, all checked 2026-10-25).
> **⚠ = unverified**: a third-party estimate, a secondhand figure, an undated claim, or my
> own arithmetic/judgement. *Derived* numbers show the formula. Nothing here is invented.
> If a number isn't in this file, I didn't find a source for it.

---

## Summary

1. **Founder-audience + affiliates is the proven path in this exact category.** Systeme.io
   (bootstrapped, founder's own course audience, then affiliates) reached **~1,500 paying
   customers about one year after its Feb 2018 launch, ~5,000 by July 2020 and ~8,000 by
   July 2021**, with **70% of sales from affiliates** (founder, 2021). ClickFunnels (Russell
   Brunson's audience, books, webinars, Funnel Hacking Live) went from 100 beta testers to
   **10,000+ paying customers by the end of its first year** (founder). Both started with an
   audience the founder had built for years before the software existed.
2. **Without a pre-built audience, growth to 10,000 customers took 6–8 years.** Thinkific
   (founded 2012): ~7,100 paying customers in 2018 ⚠, 10,900 in 2019 (*derived*), 24,600 in
   2020 (COVID year), "more than 35,000" in 2025. HighLevel (launched mid-2018): **10 agencies
   six months after launch**, ~$10–20M revenue by Feb 2021, **70,000+ agencies** today
   (company docs, accessed 2026-10-25). Kajabi (2010): ~43,000 (May 2021), ~56,000 (CEO, 2021–22).
3. **Fastest documented community/creator-tool ramps:** Circle — ~1,000 paying customers
   ~13 months after founding (Feb 2021), 4,000+ by late 2021. Stan — ARR $1.7M → $14.7M in
   2023 (8.6×), "60,000 creators" by Feb 2025, but **13% of customers churn every month**.
4. **Funnel benchmarks (what each step converts):** webinar registrant → attendee **~56%**
   overall, **39%** for marketing webinars (ON24, 2018 data); YouTube traffic → email opt-in
   **~1%** (NP Digital, 2024); opt-in free trial → paid **18%**, card-up-front trial → paid
   **49–51%**, freemium → paid **2.6–2.8%** (First Page Sage, 86 SaaS cos, 2022–25);
   self-serve freemium "good" 3–5%, trials "good" 8–12% (Lenny's/OpenView, 2023).
5. **Churn at Stapilo's price point:** ChartMogul median monthly churn **6.1%** under $25
   ARPA, **2.2%** above $500 (2021–22 data); ~**6.5%** for companies under $300k ARR,
   levelling at ~**3.7%** later. Systeme.io reported **~8%/month** (2021). Retention decays
   fastest early and flattens (ChartMogul 2023: top-quartile 90% retained at month 3, 70% at
   month 12).
6. **Affiliate commissions in the category are high and recurring:** Systeme.io **60%
   lifetime**, Skool **40% lifetime**, HighLevel **40% recurring**, ClickFunnels **≥30%
   recurring**, Kit **50% for 12 months**, Stan **20% lifetime** ⚠. At $110 ARPU a 30–40%
   commission is **$33–44 per customer per month**.
7. **Paid ads are expensive at the top of the funnel:** Meta average cost per lead **$27.66**
   (all industries), **$28.22** for Education & Instruction (WordStream, Sept 2025).
8. **My paths for Stapilo (customers at end of year 1 / 2 / 3, my model, ⚠):**
   **conservative ~100 / ~300 / ~600**, **realistic ~300 / ~1,100 / ~2,500**,
   **ambitious ~1,000 / ~3,700 / ~8,000**. At $110 that is ~$0.8M, ~$3.3M and ~$10.8M ARR
   at the end of year 3. Details and which comparable each path resembles: section C.

---

## A. How comparable companies grew their customer count

Columns: date → paying customers (unless stated), with how they grew. "Years from launch"
uses the launch date shown under each company.

### A1. Systeme.io — bootstrapped all-in-one, founder Aurélien Amacker
Launch: **February 2018** (founder, Niche Pursuits; Latka says "early 2018"). Before the
software, Amacker ran a French course/launch business with an audience and affiliate
program (affiliate program launched 2017, per Niche Pursuits).

| Date | Paying customers | Years from launch | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~early 2019 ⚠ (interview says "one year after launching"; exact date not visible) | **1,500**, $50K MRR | ~1 | Indie Hackers founder interview |
| Sept 2019 | ~2,000 | 1.6 | Indie Hackers product milestone post (via search excerpt ⚠, page 403) |
| July 2020 | ~5,000 ("150% growth in 10 months") | 2.4 | Indie Hackers milestone post ⚠ (same) |
| ~2020–21 ⚠ undated | "over 7,000", $2M run rate | ~3 | Niche Pursuits interview (page last updated 2022-10-24) |
| 2021-07-15 | **"a little bit over 8,000"**, $414k revenue in June 2021; churn ~8%/month after adding freemium (9–10% before); **70% of sales from affiliates** | 3.4 | Latka founder interview |
| 2026-10-25 | "Powering **500,000+ entrepreneurs**" (includes free accounts; not paying) | 8.7 | systeme.io homepage |
| 2024 | $20.1M revenue est., "8K customers" (stale) ⚠ | — | Latka profile (estimate) |

**How it grew:** founder's own audience first, then affiliates (today **60% lifetime
recurring** commission, "$5,000,000+ paid to affiliates", systeme.io affiliate page);
freemium added spring 2021; low price ($17–97/month today). No 2023–2026 paying-customer
count from the company found. 10,000 paying customers: not documented.

### A2. ClickFunnels — Russell Brunson
Launch: **October 2014** (Founder Reports interview). Brunson had a decade of info-marketing,
a list and JV partners before launch.

| Date | Customers | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch 2014 | 100 beta testers; hoped for 5–10k users | 0 | Founder Reports (Brunson) |
| ~end of 2015 | **10,000+ paying customers** | ~1 | Founder Reports (Brunson) |
| ~2017 | $100M annual revenue "within three years" (revenue, not customers) | ~3 | Founder Reports (Brunson) |
| 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 | 30,000 / 40,000+ / 54,000 / 99,000 users ⚠ | 2–5 | ElectroIQ stats page (no primary source) |
| undated | "over 100,000 active users"; revenue "over $170 million" | — | Brunson, Founder Reports; russellbrunson.com |

**How it grew:** on-demand "Perfect Webinar" (a live version reportedly closed **30%** of the
room — Brunson's claim ⚠), books (DotCom Secrets / Expert Secrets) whose funnels upsold
ClickFunnels, JV webinars, Funnel Hacking Live (~5,000 attendees/year), challenges, Facebook
ads for free trials (initially underperformed, per Brunson). Affiliates: **≥30% recurring**
plus "Dream Car" bonus (ClickFunnels support docs); a total-paid figure of "$136M" is
unverified ⚠ (Referly listing).

### A3. HighLevel — agency all-in-one (Shaun Clark, Varun Vairavan, Robin Alex)
Launch: **mid-2018** (Dec 2018 interview says "about six months after launch").

| Date | Customers | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-12 | **10 agencies** at ~$300/month; 0% churn | 0.5 | Latka founder interview |
| 2021-02-01 | revenue "roughly $10M to $20M", bootstrapped, profitable → ~2,800–5,600 agencies at ~$297/mo ⚠ *derived* ($10–20M ÷ 12 ÷ $297) | 2.6 | Mixergy interview |
| 2024-04-11 | grew ">5x while maintaining profitability" over 3 years | 5.8 | General Atlantic investment release |
| 2025 (Inc. 5000) | 781% revenue growth over 3 years; "over 2 million businesses" | 7 | HighLevel blog |
| accessed 2026-10-25 (undated page) | "**over 70000+ agencies 600,000+ businesses** actively using our product" | ~8 | HighLevel developer docs |
| 2024 | $82.7M revenue, 70K customers ⚠ | — | Latka (estimate) |

**How it grew:** coaches recommending it to their students and agency owners referring other
agency owners (Mixergy 2021: "40 agencies bought the product in one day" at a San Diego
mastermind; one early agency introduced 13 others). 40% recurring affiliate program
(gohighlevel.com/affiliate). White-label "SaaS mode": agencies resell it as their own
product. Large Facebook community (not quantified in a source I found ⚠).
**Agency channel arithmetic:** 600,000 businesses ÷ 70,000 agencies ≈ **8.6 active client
accounts per agency** (*derived* from the same company page).

### A4. Kit (ConvertKit) — Nathan Barry
Launch: **2013**. Barry had an audience from books and blogging; the first two years stalled.

| Date | Customers / MRR | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| mid-2013 | ~$2,000 MRR | 0 | StartupGTM write-up ⚠ (secondary) |
| Sept/Oct 2014 | $1,207–1,330 MRR (low point) | ~1.5 | StartupGTM; Sproutworth ⚠ |
| Mar / Jun / Dec 2015 | $5,020 / $10,000 / ~$97–98k MRR | ~2–2.5 | StartupGTM ⚠ |
| 2016 | ~$625k MRR; $5.8M revenue for the year | ~3 | StartupGTM ⚠ |
| 2020 | 18,000+ customers ⚠ | 7 | third-party stats page (via search) |
| 2021 → 2022 | 38,000 → 44,939 customers ⚠ | 8–9 | StartupGTM ⚠ |
| 2023 | 49,000 customers, $36.4M ⚠ | 10 | StartupGTM ⚠ |
| ~2024 ⚠ (date inferred) | "50,000-plus creators", "$40 million a year in ARR" | ~11 | Nathan Barry, podcast (see arpu-and-market-split.md) |
| 2025 | $52M ARR (no customer count) ⚠ | 12 | Sacra estimate |

**How it grew:** the "5-year growth" story is a 2015 inflection after Barry went full-time:
personal demos, **free concierge migration** for bloggers, affiliate partners (Pat Flynn),
**150+ webinars** ⚠ (secondary), 30% recurring affiliate commission then (today **50% for
12 months**, kit.com/affiliate). Barry's public Baremetrics dashboard is no longer online
(convertkit.baremetrics.com redirects), so I could not read customer counts from it.

### A5. Kajabi
Founded **2010** (Kenny Rueter, Travis Rosser). First outside capital Nov 2019 (Spectrum Equity).

| Date | Customers | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11 | no customer count; "41 million users" reached (students, cumulative) | 9 | Spectrum Equity release |
| 2021-05 | "more than **43,000** active users in 120 countries" | 11 | OCBJ, $550M round |
| 2021–22 | "about **56,000** customers"; ARR "north of $100 million" | 11–12 | CEO Ahad Khan, OCBJ |
| ~2023 | "60,000 creators", $5B lifetime GMV | 13 | TechCrunch 2023-03-12 |
| updated Feb 2026 | "100,000+ creators" ⚠ | 16 | edtech.com directory (not Kajabi) |

**How it grew:** creator case studies and partners (affiliate program historically 30%
lifetime; now reportedly tiered 10–20% ⚠, Reditus); heavy brand marketing after 2021 funding.

### A6. Thinkific (public, TSX: THNC)
Founded **2012**.

| Date | Paying customers | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7,100 ⚠ | 6 | Class Central table of IPO prospectus (via search; page 403) |
| 2019 | ~10,900 (*derived*: 24,600 ÷ 2.26) | 7 | Globe and Mail "+126%" |
| Q1 2020 | 12,800 | 8 | Thinkific Q1 2021 release |
| end 2020 | **24,600** (+126%, COVID boom) | 8 | Globe and Mail, prospectus, 2021-03-23 |
| Q1 2021 | 27,500; ARR $34.8M | 9 | Thinkific release 2021-05-11 |
| 2021 / 2022 | 32,300 / 33,600 ⚠ | 9–10 | Class Central (via search) |
| FY2025 | "more than 35,000"; ARPU $175/month | 13 | Thinkific Q4 2025 release (see arpu-and-market-split.md) |

**How it grew:** content/SEO and a free plan; ARR CAGR 160% Dec 2015–Dec 2020 (Globe and
Mail). Since 2021: flat, ~2–5%/yr.

### A7. Teachable
Founded **2013/2014** (Ankur Nagpal; sources differ). Bought by Hotmart, announced March 2020.

| Date | Customers | Source |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | "50,000-plus creators", 30M students (creators, not necessarily paying) | Hotmart CEO via EdSurge, 2020-03-17 |
| 2024 | "tens of thousands of creator-educators" | Teachable boilerplate (see arpu-and-market-split.md) |

### A8. Podia
Founded **2014** (Spencer Fry). No dated customer series found.

| Date | Customers | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | "Join **15,000+ creators** who've earned $900M+ on Podia" | podia.com homepage |

### A9. Circle (community platform)
Founded **January 2020** (Sid Yadav and team, 5 people).

| Date | Paying customers | Years | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| early 2020 | first paying customer | 0 | Sacra |
| 2021-02-16 | **~1,000 paying customers**, heading to 2,000; passed $1M ARR the month before | ~1.1 | TechCrunch |
| late 2021 | **4,000+ paying communities**; $4M ARR end 2021 | ~2 | Sacra |
| end 2023 | "10,000+ communities" ⚠ (may include non-paying; conflicts with another Sacra line) | ~4 | Sacra |
| end 2025 / May 2026 | $55M / $68M ARR ⚠ | 6 | Sacra estimates |

**How it grew:** word of mouth among course creators, integrations (ConvertKit, Teachable,
Zapier), 14-day trial, angels who were themselves community builders (TechCrunch).
*Derived:* $4M ARR ÷ 12 ÷ 4,000 ≈ **$83/month** per paying community in 2021.

### A10. Stan (Stan Store) — creator storefront (John Hu)
Founded **2020**.

| Date | Customers / ARR | Source |
|---|---|---|
| start 2023 → end 2023 | ARR $1.7M → $14.7M (8.6×); **13% of customers lost every month** | HubSpot for Startups case study |
| March 2024 | $27M ARR ⚠ | Sacra estimate |
| 2025-02-13 | "over **60,000 creators**", $30M revenue | Think Like A Creator newsletter |
| undated (2026) | "80,000+ active creators", ~$40M ARR (Apr 2026), ~$437/year per customer ⚠ | Sacra |

**How it grew:** creator-to-creator referrals (customers paid **20% of referred
subscriptions for life** ⚠, Sacra), TikTok/Instagram word of mouth, founder documenting
the company publicly on YouTube/TikTok (HubSpot). Growth slowed to ~24% in 2025 because
"gross churn has caught up" with acquisition (Sacra ⚠).

### A11. Skool — Sam Ovens, then Alex Hormozi
Founded **2019**. Hormozi became partner/investor in 2023 or early 2024 (sources differ ⚠);
the Skool Games (90-day competitions to add MRR) followed.
**No primary paying-customer count exists.** Third-party: "10,000+ paying communities" ⚠
(Yespress/Everything PR, untraceable); "over 60,000 communities" ⚠ (a Skool admin's post,
Aug 2025); Profitable.app models 12.5K paid of 42.1K tracked ⚠ (June 2026); Latka ~$26.6M
ARR ⚠. **How it grew:** Hormozi's content reach, the Skool Games, a **40% lifetime**
affiliate program where a group created from your group is credited to you
(skool.com/affiliate-program), $9 Hobby / $99 Pro plans.

### A12. Kartra (Genesis Digital — Andy Jenkins, Mike Filsaime)
Launch year of Kartra itself: not confirmed in a source I could read ⚠. Genesis Digital
(founded 2013): "more than 25,000 customers", "$16M annual revenue" ⚠ (Yespress profile);
"60,000+ active users" ⚠ (truncated review page). No dated series. Grew through the founders'
info-marketing networks and affiliate launches ⚠.

### A13. Milestone summary

| Company | Launch | ~100 | ~1,000 | ~10,000 | ~50,000 | Main engine | Founder-led content + affiliates? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClickFunnels | 2014-10 | < 1 yr | < 1 yr | **~1 yr** (founder) | ~3–4 yrs ⚠ | founder audience, books, webinars, events, affiliates | **Yes — closest to Stapilo's plan, but with years of pre-built audience** |
| Systeme.io | 2018-02 | < 1 yr ⚠ | **< 1 yr** (1,500 at ~1 yr) | not documented (8,000 at 3.4 yrs) | — | founder audience → affiliates (70% of sales) | **Yes** |
| Circle | 2020-01 | < 1 yr | **~1.1 yrs** | ~4 yrs ⚠ | — | word of mouth among creators | partly (creator community) |
| HighLevel | 2018 mid | ~1 yr ⚠ | ~2 yrs ⚠ (*derived*) | ~4–5 yrs ⚠ | ~6–7 yrs ⚠ | coaches/gurus recommending to students, agencies, affiliates | **Yes (guru partnerships)** |
| Stan | 2020 | — | — | ~2.5–3 yrs ⚠ | ~4.5 yrs (60k, Feb 2025) | creator referrals, founder content | Yes (referrals + founder video) |
| Kit | 2013 | ~1 yr ⚠ | ~2.5 yrs ⚠ | ~4–6 yrs ⚠ | ~11 yrs | demos, migration, affiliates, webinars | Yes, slow start |
| Thinkific | 2012 | — | — | **~7 yrs** | not reached (35k) | content/SEO, free plan | no |
| Kajabi | 2010 | — | — | — | **~11 yrs** (56k) | partners, brand | partly |
| Podia, Teachable, Kartra, Skool | — | no reliable series | | | | | |

---

## B. Funnel benchmarks for founder-led, content-driven SaaS sold to small businesses

| Step | Benchmark | Scope / caveat | Source (date) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **YouTube views → subscribers** | No published per-niche conversion benchmark exists. Public data: median channel at 1k–10k subs grows **0.51%/month**, 10k–100k **0.48%/month**; only **7.9%** of channels reach 10k subs, **1.3%** reach 100k | all YouTube, 61.2M channels; not business-only | vidIQ Research (July 2026) |
| YouTube: time to milestones | ~15.5 months average to 1,000 subs ⚠; one case: 10k subs in 390 days ⚠; "2–5 years" to 100k ⚠ | weak sources | ytshark; vidIQ blog; Lilach Bullock |
| YouTube traffic → email opt-in | **1.03%** opt-in rate for visitors arriving from YouTube (vs 1.59% Google, 0.88% Facebook) | 306 websites, site traffic not views | NP Digital (Oct 2024) |
| YouTube viewer → email with a specific lead magnet | 1–5% per view ⚠; cold viewers 0.5–1.5% click, 30–50% complete | vendor blogs, no method | TubeMilestone; EasyViral |
| **Webinar registrant → attendee** | **55.9%** overall; **43.3%** for webinars >100 attendees; **39.1%** marketing webinars; "35–45% is good" | 22,922 B2B webinars, 2018 data | ON24 Webinar Benchmarks Report 2019 (primary PDF) |
| Webinar registrant → attendee (newer) | **57%** (2024 data); ~60% in 2026 report ⚠ | secondhand (MarketingProfs; vendor blog) | ON24 via MarketingProfs (2025) ⚠ |
| Webinar attendee → purchase | **5–20%** for education-led formats; 15–25% high-ticket ⚠ | single vendor estimate; no independent study found | ClickMeeting blog (2025) ⚠ |
| Email list → click | average click rate **2.62%** all users; **3.02%** Education + Training; 2.78% Business + Finance | per email sent, Dec 2023 data | Mailchimp benchmarks |
| Email list → trial/sign-up | **No reliable published benchmark found.** | — | — |
| Website visitor → trial | opt-in trial **8.5%** organic / 7.1% paid; card-required **2.5% / 2.2%**; freemium sign-up 13.3% / 15.9% | 86 SaaS companies, Q1 2022–Q3 2025 (agency client data) | First Page Sage (updated 2025-09-05) |
| **Free trial → paid** | opt-in (no card) **18.2%** organic / 17.4% paid; **opt-out (card up front) 48.8% / 51%**; Education/Edtech 24.8%, CRM 29.0% | "paid" = at least one paid month | First Page Sage (2025-09-05) |
| Free trial → paid (alt.) | "good" **8–12%**, "great" 15–25% | 1,000+ products, 6-month window | Lenny's Newsletter / Kyle Poyar / OpenView (2023-08-01) |
| Opt-in vs opt-out (alt.) | 25.2% vs 60.4% ⚠ | 38 accounts, agency self-report | Visionary Marketing (2026) ⚠ |
| **Freemium → paid** | self-serve "good" **3–5%**, "great" 6–8%; First Page Sage **2.6–2.8%** | — | Lenny's (2023); First Page Sage (2025) |
| **Monthly churn by price** | median **6.1%** (ARPA < $25) → **2.2%** (> $500); intermediate bands only in a chart ⚠ | Nov 2021–Jan 2022 aggregates | ChartMogul blog |
| Monthly churn by company stage | ~**6.5%** under $300k ARR → levels at ~**3.7%** ($1–3M MRR range) | same | ChartMogul blog |
| Retention over customer age | top quartile keeps **90%** of a new cohort at month 3, **70%** at month 12; decay roughly exponential, flattening | 2,100+ SaaS businesses, 2021–22 cohorts | ChartMogul SaaS Retention Report (2023-11-01) |
| Churn concentration early | "60–70% of annual churn in the first 90 days" ⚠ | untraced vendor claim | Paddle/ProfitWell via blogs ⚠ |
| B2B SaaS churn (blended) | voluntary 3.95% + involuntary 1.38% / month ⚠ (undated page); 2018: 5.56% B2B | blended sizes | Recurly |
| Comparable churn, actual | Systeme.io **~8%/month** (9–10% before freemium); Stan **13%/month** | founder 2021; HubSpot 2023 | Latka; HubSpot |
| **Affiliate commissions** | Systeme.io **60% lifetime**; Skool **40% lifetime**; HighLevel **40% recurring**; ClickFunnels **≥30% recurring** (+ Dream Car); Kit **50% × 12 months** (+10–20% for top tiers); Kajabi historically 30% lifetime, now tiered 10–20% ⚠; Stan 20% lifetime ⚠ | official pages except where ⚠ | company pages; Reditus; Sacra |
| **Affiliate share of new sales** | Systeme.io **70%** of sales (2021). No other company publishes a share. | single data point | Latka founder interview |
| Affiliate payouts | Systeme.io "$5,000,000+" paid to affiliates; ClickFunnels "$136M" ⚠ | — | systeme.io; Referly ⚠ |
| **Paid ads: Meta cost per lead** | **$27.66** all industries; **$28.22** Education & Instruction; $37.34 Industrial & Commercial; up ~21% YoY | Sept 2025 report | WordStream; Search Engine Land |
| Paid CAC, SaaS | startup SaaS CAC **$273** B2B ⚠; SMB SaaS "$200–400" rule of thumb ⚠; B2B inorganic channels avg $1,907 vs organic $942 ⚠ | agency client data, secondhand | First Page Sage via Enrich Labs / consultancy summaries ⚠ |
| **Agency / partner channel** | HighLevel: **70,000+ agencies, 600,000+ businesses** → ~8.6 client accounts per agency (*derived*); "40 agencies bought in one day" at one mastermind; coaches recommending it to students | company docs; founder interview 2021 | HighLevel docs; Mixergy |

---

## C. Analysis: what a realistic customer path looks like for Stapilo, years 1–3

### C1. What the comparables teach

- **Price matters for count.** The fast counters were cheap or free to start: Systeme.io
  ($17–97 + freemium, ~$52 ARPU in 2021), Stan ($29), Skool ($9/$99), Circle (~$83
  *derived*). Stapilo at ~$110 ARPU sits with Kajabi ($149) and Thinkific ($175), which grew
  slowly in customer count. HighLevel shows a $97–497 product can still reach 70,000
  accounts, but through agencies that resell it.
- **The founder's audience existed before launch** at ClickFunnels and Systeme.io. Stapilo's
  founder plans to build it now (YouTube, webinars). The vidIQ data says most channels grow
  slowly, so year 1 cannot rest on YouTube alone.
- **Partners and affiliates did most of the work** where it was measured: 70% of Systeme.io's
  sales; HighLevel's coach-to-students and agency-to-agency referrals; Kit's Pat Flynn
  webinars. This matches the plan of partnering with marketing gurus. One mastermind sold
  HighLevel to 40 agencies in a day.
- **Churn sets the ceiling.** At 5–8% monthly churn, a company must replace 5–8% of its base
  every month before it grows. Stan's growth slowed once churn caught up with acquisition.

### C2. The model (my assumptions ⚠)

A cohort model: new paying customers per month rise in a straight line within each year;
customers churn at an "early" rate in their first 3 months and a lower "mature" rate after
(shape per ChartMogul 2023; levels per ChartMogul 2022, Systeme.io 2021, Stan 2023).
Script: one-off Python, 36 months.

| Path | New paying customers per month (start→end of yr1 / yr2 / yr3) | Churn first 3 months / after | **End yr1** | **End yr2** | **End yr3** | MRR end yr3 at $110 | ARR end yr3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Conservative** | 5→20 / 20→45 / 45→80 | 12% / 6% | **~100** | **~300** | **~630** | ~$69k | ~$0.8M |
| **Realistic** | 10→60 / 60→150 / 150→300 | 10% / 4.5% | **~310** | **~1,080** | **~2,520** | ~$277k | ~$3.3M |
| **Ambitious** | 30→200 / 200→500 / 500→900 | 10% / 4% | **~1,040** | **~3,660** | **~8,160** | ~$898k | ~$10.8M |

### C3. What each path resembles

- **Conservative ≈ Kit 2013–14, Thinkific's early years, Podia.** The founder's content
  grows slowly, few partners sign on, churn stays near the ChartMogul small-company median
  (~6%). Kit was at ~$1.3k MRR 18 months in; Thinkific needed ~7 years to reach 10,000.
  Year-3 count ~600: plausible if the YouTube channel is still small and partners don't
  engage.
- **Realistic ≈ Circle and Systeme.io, slowed for a higher price.** Circle had ~1,000
  paying at ~13 months and 4,000 at ~2 years; Systeme.io had ~1,500 at ~1 year and ~5,000
  at 2.4 years. Both were cheaper than Stapilo and Systeme.io's founder started with an
  audience, so this path sits below them (~1,100 at 2 years, ~2,500 at 3). It needs
  ~150–300 new paying customers a month in year 3. A mix that delivers this, using section
  B's rates (illustration ⚠):
  - **Partners/affiliates ~40%** (~60–120/month): a handful of guru partners each running
    webinars to their lists, at 30–40% recurring commission ($33–44/customer/month).
  - **Founder webinars ~25%:** a weekly webinar with 500 registrants × ~40% attend × ~5%
    buy ≈ 10 customers per webinar ≈ **~40/month**.
  - **YouTube/content ~25%:** 100k monthly views × ~1% to email ≈ 1,000 leads/month. If
    ~10% of leads start a trial (assumption ⚠) and 18% of opt-in trials pay, that is
    **~18 customers/month**. YouTube compounds slowly, and it mainly feeds the webinars.
  - **Paid ads ~10%:** at ~$28/lead and an assumed ~2% lead→paid ⚠, CAC ≈ **$1,400**. Against
    ~$1,500–2,200 lifetime gross revenue at $110 and 5–7% churn (*derived*: $110 ÷ churn),
    paid ads only work as a booster, not as the engine.
- **Ambitious ≈ ClickFunnels year 1, HighLevel's agency flywheel, Stan 2023.** ClickFunnels
  had 10,000+ paying customers at ~1 year, but Brunson had a list, books and JV partners
  built over ten years. HighLevel grew because coaches told their students and agencies
  resold it. Stapilo reaching ~1,000 in year 1 and ~8,000 in year 3 would need **several
  large guru partnerships live in year 1**, plus an agency/reseller program that works
  (agencies opening several client accounts each — HighLevel averages ~8.6, *derived*), plus
  churn held near 4%. It is ~Systeme.io's 3.4-year count at double the price.

### C4. What would move Stapilo between paths (judgement ⚠)

1. **Partners first, channel second.** The single largest measured driver in the category
   is affiliates/partners (Systeme.io 70%). Signing 3–5 guru partners in year 1 is the
   difference between conservative and realistic.
2. **Card-up-front trial vs no-card trial.** 49–51% vs 18% trial→paid (First Page Sage).
   Fewer sign-ups, more customers per sign-up; choose deliberately.
3. **Churn in months 1–3.** Onboarding that gets a business live (the AI agent building it)
   attacks the steepest part of the retention curve. In this model, one point less mature
   churn (4.5% → 3.5%) adds only ~6% to the year-3 count (2,520 → 2,660), but it raises the
   long-run ceiling, where new customers equal lost ones, by ~29% (*derived*: 300 ÷ 4.5% ≈
   6,700 vs 300 ÷ 3.5% ≈ 8,600 customers) ⚠.
4. **An agency/reseller tier** is the only documented route to HighLevel-scale account
   counts at Stapilo's price.

---

## Sources (all checked 2026-10-25)

**Systeme.io**
- Latka founder interview, 2021-07-15: https://getlatka.com/companies/systemeio/interviews/systemeio-aurelien-amacker-2021
- Niche Pursuits interview (last updated 2022-10-24): https://www.nichepursuits.com/systemeio-review/
- Indie Hackers founder interview (page returned 403; figures via search excerpt ⚠): https://www.indiehackers.com/interview/how-i-built-a-better-team-and-grew-revenue-to-50k-mrr-ce4055dcd1
- Indie Hackers "5,000 paying customers" milestone (403; via search excerpt ⚠): https://www.indiehackers.com/product/systeme-io/5-000-paying-customers--MD55ZvMh-dOSSUYXFk2
- Yaro Starak interview, 2020-10-08: https://yaro.blog/aurelien-amacker/
- Affiliate program page: https://systeme.io/affiliate-program
- Homepage ("500,000+ entrepreneurs"): https://systeme.io/
- Latka estimate: https://getlatka.com/companies/systemeio

**ClickFunnels**
- Founder Reports interview with Russell Brunson (2024-07-31, updated 2025-12-16): https://founderreports.com/interview/clickfunnels/
- ElectroIQ statistics ⚠: https://electroiq.com/stats/clickfunnels-statistics/
- ClickFunnels affiliate docs: https://support.myclickfunnels.com/docs/clickfunnels-affiliate-program.md
- Referly listing ⚠: https://www.referly.so/affiliate-programs/clickfunnels

**HighLevel**
- Latka founder interview, 2018-12-12: https://getlatka.com/interviews/gohighlevel-shaun-clark-2018
- Mixergy interview, 2021-02-01: https://mixergy.com/interviews/gohighlevel-with-shaun-clark/
- General Atlantic investment release, 2024-04-11: https://www.silicon.co.uk/press-release/highlevel-announces-minority-growth-investment-from-general-atlantic
- Inc. 5000 2025 post: https://www.gohighlevel.com/post/highlevel-ranks-516-on-the-2025-inc-5000
- Developer docs (70,000+ agencies, 600,000+ businesses): https://marketplace.gohighlevel.com/docs/oauth/GettingStarted
- Affiliate page: https://www.gohighlevel.com/affiliate
- Latka estimate ⚠: https://getlatka.com/companies/gohighlevel

**Kit (ConvertKit)**
- StartupGTM growth story (2024-10-18) ⚠: https://startupgtm.substack.com/p/convertkit-now-kit-growth-story-how
- Sproutworth ⚠: https://www.sproutworth.com/saas-revenue-growth-lessons-convertkit/
- Sacra ⚠: https://sacra.com/c/convertkit/
- Affiliate page: https://convertkit.com/affiliate ; PartnerStack: https://market.partnerstack.com/page/kit

**Kajabi**
- OCBJ, $550M round (2021-05): https://www.ocbj.com/news/2021/may/10/kajabi-nabs-550m-knowledge-economy/
- OCBJ, revenue tops $100M (CEO quote): https://www.ocbj.com/technology/kajabi-revenue-tops-100m-knowledge-economy-expands/
- TechCrunch, 2023-03-12: https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/12/online-education-platform-kajabi-helps-creators-earn-money-for-sharing-their-expertise
- Spectrum Equity, 2019-11: https://spectrumequity.com/news/kajabi-receives-minority-growth-investment-from-spectrum-equity
- edtech.com directory ⚠: https://www.edtech.com/companies/kajabi
- Reditus affiliate summary ⚠: https://getreditus.com/affiliate-programs/kajabi

**Thinkific**
- Globe and Mail, 2021-03-23: https://theglobeandmail.com/business/article-online-course-platform-thinkific-labs-files-preliminary-prospectus-to/
- Q1 2021 release, 2021-05-11: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/thinkific-reports-strong-first-quarter-2021-financial-results-804770948.html
- Class Central prospectus analysis (403; via search ⚠): https://www.classcentral.com/report/thinkific-ipo/

**Teachable / Podia / Kartra**
- EdSurge, 2020-03-17: https://www.edsurge.com/news/2020-03-17-brazilian-course-creation-platform-to-buy-teachable-to-grow-in-the-u-s
- Podia homepage: https://www.podia.com/
- Genesis Digital profile ⚠: https://yespress.io/genesis-digital-llc

**Circle**
- TechCrunch, 2021-02-16: https://techcrunch.com/?p=2112862
- Sacra ⚠: https://sacra.com/c/circle-so

**Stan**
- HubSpot for Startups case study: https://hubspot.com/startups/stan-increases-arr-over-8x
- Think Like A Creator, 2025-02-13: https://thinklikeacreator.beehiiv.com/p/8-engineers-60k-creators-30m-arr-tlac-success-story-004
- Sacra ⚠: https://sacra.com/c/stan

**Skool**
- Affiliate program: https://www.skool.com/affiliate-program
- Skool admin post (Aug 2025) ⚠: https://www.skool.com/admins/skool-is-growing-rapidly-are-you-ready
- RevenueGeeks sample (updated 2026-10-24): https://revenuegeeks.com/software/skool/statistics
- Everything PR ⚠: https://everything-pr.com/skool-the-community-plus-course-platform-of-the-paid-community-wave
- Profitable.app ⚠: https://profitable.app/skool/stats

**Funnel benchmarks**
- ON24 Webinar Benchmarks Report 2019 (2018 data), PDF: https://images.g2crowd.com/uploads/attachment/file/120689/on24-benchmarks-20190228.pdf
- MarketingProfs on ON24 2024 data ⚠ (403): https://www.marketingprofs.com/charts/2025/52917/b2b-webinar-benchmarks-conversion-attendance-personalization
- ClickMeeting ⚠: https://blog.clickmeeting.com/webinars-that-convert
- First Page Sage trial benchmarks (2025-09-05): https://firstpagesage.com/seo-blog/saas-free-trial-conversion-rate-benchmarks/
- Lenny's Newsletter (2023-08-01): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/what-is-a-good-free-to-paid-conversion
- Visionary Marketing ⚠: https://visionary-marketing.co.uk/blog/saas-free-trial-conversion-statistics-2026
- ChartMogul churn by ARPA/stage: https://chartmogul.com/blog/good-customer-churn-rate/
- ChartMogul SaaS Retention Report (2023-11-01): https://chartmogul.com/saas-retention-report/
- Recurly ⚠: https://recurly.com/research/churn-rate-benchmarks/
- Mailchimp benchmarks (Dec 2023 data): https://mailchimp.com/resources/email-marketing-benchmarks/
- vidIQ subscriber benchmarks (July 2026): https://vidiq.com/research/youtube-subscriber-benchmarks-2026/ ; https://vidiq.com/blog/post/youtube-subscriber-growth-statistics/
- ytshark ⚠: https://ytshark.com/?p=731 ; Lilach Bullock ⚠: https://www.lilachbullock.com/how-many-youtube-channels-have-100000-subscribers/
- NP Digital opt-in rates (Oct 2024): https://neilpatel.com/marketing-stats/organic-channels-email-opt-ins/
- TubeMilestone ⚠: https://tubemilestone.com/blog/grow-email-list-from-youtube ; EasyViral ⚠: https://easyviral.ai/blog/build-email-list-from-faceless-youtube-channel-2026
- WordStream Facebook ads benchmarks 2025: https://www.wordstream.com/blog/facebook-ads-benchmarks-2025
- Search Engine Land on 2025 cost rise: https://searchengineland.com/facebook-ad-costs-jump-beat-google-461690
- Enrich Labs CAC summary ⚠: https://www.enrichlabs.ai/blog/customer-acquisition-cost-complete-guide-2026